Bonds & Rates
Yields stay high even as the 10-year dips
Treasury yields ease a bit on the day, but they remain elevated and volatility in the back end stays sticky.
Treasury yields are still the story. The 5-year ends at 4.426%, down 0.8% on the day, the 10-year finishes at 4.679%, down 0.5%, and the 30-year closes at 5.162%, down 0.2%. Even with the daily pullback, the weekly moves are still higher across the curve, with the 5-year up 3.6% and the 10-year up 3.0%.
Credit is soft. LQD slips 0.03%, HYG is flat, and MUB rises 0.3%. All three remain below or near pressure points on their technicals, and LQD sits below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
The headlines explain the caution. CNBC says bond-market anxiety is growing over AI capex budgets, and another CNBC piece links higher oil to rising odds of a Fed rate hike. That combination keeps fixed income tied to both growth spending and energy risk, not just the latest CPI print.
The volatility backdrop matches the move. The VIX 9-day jumps 4.6% to 17.62, while the 30-day VIX slips 0.6% to 18.58. The curve between short-dated and longer-dated volatility stays active, even as the cash market finishes only modestly changed.