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Middle East tensions fail to move commodity complex materially

Societe Generale said oil rose about 10% from $72 to $78 per barrel in three days before easing, while its year-end forecast stayed at $70.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem said the broader commodity complex has shown resilience despite major Middle East headlines, with oil gains capped and their forecast for year-end oil prices unchanged at $70.

In their weekly assessment, they noted the S&P BCOM gained 2% on the week, which they characterized as less than a typical weekly move seen elsewhere this year, after prices firmed briefly following the ceasefire ending and renewed strikes by both sides.

The analysts said oil was the main driver, climbing about 10% from $72 to $78 per barrel over three days before pulling back later in the week. They attributed the rally’s pause to what they described as an apparent ceiling for now.

They also said attention is shifting toward agricultural markets and an expected return of El Niño later this year, with agricultural commodities up 7% this month and softs up 8% in the week alone.

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