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EURUSD stalls at 200-hour MA after CPI-driven bounce fades
The rebound followed weaker US CPI and pushed EURUSD to 1.1462, where sellers quickly defended the 38.2% retracement level.
EURUSD initially gained after US CPI came in softer than expected, prompting traders to pare back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening. Headline and core inflation both undershot forecasts, and the dollar fell broadly in the immediate aftermath, helping lift the euro-dollar pair.
The rally carried EURUSD to 1.1462, where it tested a key technical hurdle, the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May 29 high at 1.14618. Sellers stepped in almost immediately, stalling the advance and turning the move back lower.
After the rejection, EURUSD moved back toward key hourly moving averages, first probing the 200-hour moving average near 1.1423 and then testing the 100-hour moving average around 1.1417. Buyers responded near those support levels and the pair bounced modestly to about 1.1431, according to Forexlive.
Near term, the pair is being kept in a narrow technical range defined by resistance at 1.1462 and support between 1.1417 and 1.1423. Forexlive said a sustained break below the 200-hour and 100-hour averages would increase the bearish bias and raise the odds of a deeper retracement of the post-CPI bounce, while a clear move back above 1.1462 would be needed for buyers to regain momentum.