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June CPI falls 0.4%, weakening case for a July Fed hike
June CPI dropped 0.4% month over month after a 0.5% rise in May, and 12-month headline inflation eased to 3.5% as month-to-month inflation flattened.
HousingWire reports that June CPI fell 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest one-month decline since April 2020, after increasing 0.5% in May.
The outlet says 12-month headline CPI cooled to 3.5% year over year, and it argues the reading weakens the case for a July rate hike because the Federal Reserve has emphasized month-to-month inflation dynamics.
HousingWire notes that, while inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target on a 12-month basis, the report showed month-to-month inflation was essentially flat, which would undermine recent arguments that policy might tighten again in July.
The story also highlights that oil prices have been volatile amid the Iran conflict, with oil rising above $80, and says some Fed commentary could shift as policymakers react to that headline pressure.