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IEA warns China curbs on rare earth exports could endanger $6.5T output
The IEA estimates China could put $6.5 trillion per year of downstream production outside China at risk, with an additional $300 billion vulnerable if battery material shipments are disrupted.
The International Energy Agency said China’s recent and evolving export controls on some rare earth elements pose a supply security threat to industries that rely on small volumes of critical minerals. According to the IEA, China introduced major export controls on heavy rare earths last year, and while further expanded controls were suspended until November 2026, the full effect could still matter if Beijing proceeds with implementation.
In the IEA’s annual Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 report, the agency estimated that the implementation of the controls could put an estimated $6.5 trillion per year of downstream production outside China at risk across automotive, high-tech, defense, and energy sectors. The agency added that tighter curbs on key battery supply chain materials could be even more damaging if trade in battery-grade graphite were fully disrupted.
The IEA said it also remains concerned that the global critical minerals market is still highly concentrated, with China the leader in mining and refining many of these metals. The agency described the developments as highlighting the fragility of concentrated supply chains and the outsized economic value tied to critical mineral availability.
OilPrice reported on the IEA’s findings, noting that targeted policies and investment support for rare earth supply chains outside China have improved some areas, but overall concentration in key supplier countries remains a core risk.