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Carry trades keep Latin American FX resilient versus the dollar
BNY says strong regional balance-of-payments buffers and attractive carry are supporting Latin American currencies, even as equity-market nerves rise.
BNY strategist Geoff Yu said Latin American currencies remain resilient against potential US Dollar strength, citing strong balance-of-payments positions and an attractive carry environment, even with rising nervousness in global equities, according to FXStreet Insights.
Yu pointed to conflict-era inflows as a buffer against dollar preference and highlighted Banxico’s easing path, while noting that the Peruvian Sol (PEN) stands out as under-owned in the region, even as total return prospects in Latin America lag higher-yield peers in EMEA and APAC.
The note also pointed to upcoming Mexico data, with Mexican retail sales and IGAE activity data expected to show moderate gains, but not enough to derail Banxico’s easing path, since real rates remain high relative to price risks.
FXStreet Insights added expectations around biweekly Mexico CPI at 3.25% year over year, with barely any sequential growth, and said the carry setup looks positive even if the US Federal Reserve is positioned more defensively against price risks.