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ING sees long-term tilt in US aluminium tariffs under Section 232

Qualifying smelting projects can import aluminium at a 25% tariff instead of the standard 50%, which ING says is unlikely to change near-term market conditions.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

ING analysts said recent amendments to US Section 232 aluminium tariffs are designed to encourage investment in domestic smelting capacity.

Under the changes, companies that build, expand, or refurbish qualifying US smelting projects can apply to import qualifying volumes at a 25% tariff, rather than the standard 50% rate.

ING added that the policy is a long-term industrial shift rather than an immediate fix for supply gaps, noting US primary aluminium output has fallen to just four operating smelters.

The analysts said the limited new capacity means the US will remain structurally dependent on imports for now, supporting Midwest premiums.

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