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ING expects Bank of England to keep rates on hold through 2026

ING says a BoE rate hike would likely require a sharp jump in oil and natural gas prices, with oil near $120 per barrel and Dutch TTF gas around €80 per MWh pushing inflation above 4%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

ING’s James Smith expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold on 30 July and sees the pause lasting through 2026, according to FXStreet.

FXStreet notes ING expects the BoE’s updated forecasts to show UK inflation peaking near 3% later this year, below the roughly 4% level the bank previously flagged as more likely to drive second-round effects.

ING argues that higher energy prices would need to rise significantly more to justify a hike, saying oil would have to return toward $120 per barrel from about $90 and Dutch TTF natural gas would need to move up to around €80 per MWh from about €58 to push inflation above 4%.

FXStreet adds that ING’s base case is no rate change through 2026, with two rate cuts projected from spring 2027 contingent on there being no material fiscal stimulus at the Autumn Budget.

Latest closeNat gas $2.908 ▼0.3%

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