Forex
Home›Forex›Central Banks›Japan core inflation seen steady in June, leaving BOJ…
Japan core inflation seen steady in June, leaving BOJ in focus
June core inflation is estimated at 2.7% year over year, while core-core is forecast at 2.0%, the lowest since July 2024.
Forexlive says Japan’s June core inflation is estimated to be steady at 2.7% year over year, matching May and keeping attention on the Bank of Japan’s next rate decision.
The outlet notes the core CPI estimate still includes energy but excludes fresh food and certain institutional factors, while the more closely watched core-core CPI estimate excludes energy. June core-core inflation is projected at 2.0% year over year, continuing a downward path from a peak of 3.6% in July 2024.
Forexlive adds that the core CPI picture has been volatile, falling from 3.0% in August last year to 2.2% in February, then rising again to 2.8% in April before easing in May. For core-core inflation, the June reading would mark the lowest since July 2024, which could complicate arguments for further tightening.
Looking at the broader inflation composition, the report describes the data as reflecting mainly cost-push pressure rather than the wage-driven inflation policymakers are seeking, while a trimmed mean estimate is seen at 1.6% year over year, slightly higher than 1.5% in April and May. Forexlive concludes the backdrop is not clearly compelling for urgent BOJ action, depending on whether policymakers frame it as improvement or deterioration.