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Prediction markets on drug approvals raise concerns for clinical research
The expansion would allow wagers not only on approvals but also on clinical trial results via Kalshi and Polymarket, according to NYT Business.
NYT Business reports that prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, are taking wagers on drug approvals, a move that has drawn concern about whether financial betting could undermine clinical research.
The outlet says Kalshi is also planning to expand into bets tied to clinical trial results, broadening the range of drug-development outcomes investors and traders could bet on.
While the platforms are positioned as forecasting tools, the report highlights worries that turning key medical milestones into trading instruments may affect how research is conducted and perceived.
The development follows the broader trend of prediction markets moving from political and event forecasting into areas tied to regulated scientific and commercial timelines.