Home›Bonds & Rates›Central Banks›ECB wage tracker shows negotiated pay pressures steady…

ECB wage tracker shows negotiated pay pressures steady into 2027

The ECB’s wage tracker extends its forward-looking horizon to March 2027, with smoothed negotiated wage growth at 2.7% in Q1 2027 after averaging 2.1% in Q2 2026 and 2.6% in Q3 and Q4 2026.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

The European Central Bank said its wage tracker for active collective bargaining agreements points to stable negotiated wage pressures heading into 2027. The ECB’s headline wage tracker, which smooths one-off payments over time, is at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027, following a 2.6% average in the third and fourth quarters of 2026.

ECB data also show the wage tracker remains broadly unchanged for 2026 compared with the June 2026 release, with new agreements not materially altering the assessment for the year. The ECB noted the headline indicator is designed for quarterly or monthly dynamics by smoothing one-offs, while an unsmoothed version is better suited for yearly wage dynamics.

In the unsmoothed one-off measure, negotiated wage growth is 2.6% for 2026 and 2.7% for Q1 2027. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments also holds at 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in Q1 2027.

The ECB said the rise in the headline wage tracker through 2026 reflects the fading mechanical downward effect of large one-off payments made in 2024 but not in 2025, with that effect virtually disappearing in the second half of 2026. It also extended the forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker to March 2027, citing gradual increases in contract coverage reaching 2027.

More like this

Sources