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China’s export mix suggests it supplies intermediate goods to Global South

An Oxford Economics report cited by SCMP says nearly half of China’s exports are intermediate goods, supporting other countries’ production rather than replacing them with finished consumer products.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Emerging Markets

A senior fellow at the Centre for China and Globalisation argues in SCMP that claims in Western business circles portraying China as trying to crush industrial progress in developing nations do not match the data on trade flows. The analysis points to a shift in China’s export composition, saying the share of consumer goods fell from about 36 percent to roughly 33 percent over the same period, while the capital goods share was broadly steady at around 20 percent. The author frames the pattern as more consistent with supplying inputs for other countries’ factory growth than with seeking to dominate final consumer markets.

The article also highlights that in labor-intensive categories where head-to-head competition would be most likely, China’s global export share is declining. It says China’s share of global garment exports fell to just under 30 percent in 2024, down from a peak of over 40 percent about a decade earlier, and notes similar downward trends in footwear.

For the broader trade implication, SCMP cites an Oxford Economics report estimating that nearly half of China’s total exports are intermediate goods, such as components and raw materials used in other countries’ production lines rather than finished goods shipped to consumers. The piece concludes that China’s role is increasingly tied to providing the building blocks for other nations’ industrial engines.

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