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Hong Kong GDP growth slows in 2Q26 amid moderating consumption
UOB keeps its 2026 GDP forecast at 3.9% and flags downside risks from tighter Mainland capital controls and geopolitical uncertainty.
UOB economist Ho Woei Chen said Hong Kong’s GDP growth decelerated to 4.3% year on year in 2Q26, after 5.9% in 1Q26, with activity contracting 0.6% quarter on quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The slowdown reflects moderating consumption and investment, even as goods exports stayed robust, with electronics products accounting for 57% of Hong Kong’s exports in the first five months of 2026.
UOB pointed to resilience in domestic spending, noting retail sales by value recorded a 13th consecutive month of growth in May, helped by stronger demand for consumer durables and a tourism rebound with visitor arrivals up 13.0% year on year in the first half.
The economist also cited a strengthening housing market, with home prices rising 0.3% month on month and 12.7% year on year in June, while maintaining GDP forecasts of 3.9% for 2026 and 2.4% for 2027.