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Riksbank likely to hold policy rate in 2026 despite hotter core inflation

Nomura points to upside surprises in Swedish CPIF ex energy, alongside fuel duty cuts and subsidized public transport that Riksbank expects to shave more than 0.1 percentage point from H2 inflation.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Nomura strategists say Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged in 2026 even after Swedish inflation data showed mixed signals in July.

They highlight that headline CPIF slowed, while CPIF ex energy inflation surprised to the upside, rising to 0.6% year over year from 0.4% in June, as headline dynamics eased to 0.7% year over year.

The firm links part of the slowdown in headline inflation to government fuel duty cuts and to public transport subsidies, including a temporary 50% discount on monthly public transport passes that runs through the end of the year.

Nomura also notes the Riksbank estimates the transport discount will reduce inflation by just over 0.1 percentage point in the second half of the year, leaving the central bank facing a complex inflation mix as it sets policy.

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