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TD Securities sees CAD supported by resilient Canadian jobs report

TD Securities expects Canada’s July employment to rise about 20,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 6.4%, with year-on-year wage growth slowing to 3.4%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

TD Securities strategists say Canada’s July jobs report could reinforce labour market resilience, supporting the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar. In their view, employment should increase by about 20,000, in line with consensus, extending the recovery from 2026 job losses.

The strategists also expect hiring intentions to improve into the third quarter and project the unemployment rate to dip to 6.4%. They anticipate year-on-year wage growth slowing to 3.4%, attributing the change largely to a base effect from last July.

FXStreet frames the setup as part of a broader USD narrative around the market’s focus on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls release. It notes the US dollar’s near-term direction remains tied to expectations for US jobs data, which could influence how investors position in major currency pairs.

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