Home›Forex›Central Banks›Thailand CPI misses expectations as Bank of Thailand h…

Thailand CPI misses expectations as Bank of Thailand holds 1% policy rate

UOB forecasts Thailand’s headline CPI will rise to 2.8% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, while the Bank of Thailand is expected to keep its policy rate at 1.00% through end-2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

UOB Global Economics and Markets Research said Thailand’s July inflation print came in below expectations, with headline CPI easing to +1.95% year over year and -0.73% month over month, after June’s +2.42% year over year and -0.34% month over month.

The miss was attributed mainly to lower fuel prices, UOB said, noting inflation remains supply-led even as core CPI firmed to +1.34% year over year and +0.08% month over month.

UOB emphasized that upstream pressures are still elevated, pointing to higher upstream PPI, and characterized the core result as signaling ongoing indirect cost pass-through that stays contained.

Based on its outlook, UOB maintained forecasts for headline CPI at 2.8% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, and expected the Bank of Thailand to hold its policy rate at 1.00% through the end of 2027, citing oil, the baht, and the current account as key swing factors rather than a domestic demand tightening cycle.

More like this

Sources