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RBA seen holding rates at 4.35% as housing slows

TD Securities points to a lower-than-expected Q2 trimmed mean CPI as a reason the RBA can pause, while expecting only limited shifts in inflation forecasts despite higher oil prices.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

TD Securities strategists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, arguing that policy is already restrictive and that parts of the economy, especially housing, are slowing after prior rate hikes, according to FXStreet.

The strategists also cite data showing lower-than-expected Q2 trimmed mean CPI, which they say gives the RBA room to pause in August.

They expect only limited changes to the central bank’s inflation forecasts even as oil prices remain elevated.

The note is framed in a broader market context where investors are weighing central bank rate outlooks and shifting macro signals, FXStreet said.

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