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Norges Bank rate outlook shifts toward November after slower inflation

Economists said the central bank kept the policy rate at 4.25% in August, but guidance left room for a further hike while rate cuts are not expected until September 2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Nomura economists said Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.25% in August despite softer underlying inflation, pointing to slower progress on disinflation even as inflation prints cooled.

While the bank still signaled it may need to raise rates, Nomura now expects the next possible hike in November rather than at the next earlier window.

Nomura added that it does not see rate cuts before September 2027 and that the guidance suggests a second hike this year is less likely than the June meeting implied, though still viewed as the most probable outcome unless inflation data builds more confidence in the disinflation path.

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