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Poland’s July CPI accelerates on fuel prices, ING says
Fuel costs drove retail petrol and diesel prices up 15.8% month over month, lifting fuel inflation to 7.0% year over year and adding about 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points to headline CPI.
Poland’s July consumer prices accelerated, rising 3.0% year over year from 2.5% in June, according to an ING note cited by FXStreet. The pickup was driven largely by renewed fuel price pressure following fiscal and market changes.
ING pointed to higher fuel costs after the standard 23% VAT rate returned from 8% and the fuel price cap was removed at the start of July. It also linked the move to higher oil prices after the collapse of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which pushed retail petrol and diesel prices up 15.8% month over month.
The analysis said annual fuel price inflation accelerated to 7.0% year over year in July from 1.3% in June, contributing around 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points to headline CPI. Elsewhere in the CPI basket, ING described broad-based food disinflation as continuing and housing energy inflation as easing slightly.
ING added that core inflation excluding food and energy edged up 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% year over year, with no sign of a broad-based upward trend. FXStreet reported ING’s view that headline inflation remained within the central bank’s 2.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point target range, and that the outlook did not warrant a monetary policy response.