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Rupee outlook hinges on RBI delaying rate hikes after July CPI print
India’s July CPI rose to 4.45% year-on-year, keeping inflation inside the RBI’s 2% to 6% band and pointing to a later start for a projected tightening cycle.
India’s July inflation data is expected to influence the Reserve Bank of India’s near-term policy path, with MUFG citing a CPI release that stayed within the central bank’s 2% to 6% target range. Michael Wan at MUFG said the July Consumer Price Index rose 4.45% year-on-year, edging down from June’s 4.38% but still driven mainly by higher food prices.
With inflation considered compliant with the RBI’s band, Wan expects the central bank to maintain a neutral stance for now. He also projects that a rate-hiking cycle of about 50 basis points would be delayed, with the start pushed to December 2026.
The FXStreet piece frames this outlook alongside broader currency moves, noting that the US dollar has stabilized after a sell-off tied to US CPI data. In the same market commentary, the euro and pound were described as trading modestly or in ranges as investors look to additional US data for further direction.