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CF Industries says normal-year profit target rises despite Iran conflict
The fertilizer producer reported first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion and raised its mid-cycle EBITDA goal to about $3.3 billion by 2030.
CF Industries said its earnings strength is not only tied to geopolitical disruptions, arguing that higher and more permanent costs to build global nitrogen capacity should support profits even in a normal year. In its August 6 earnings call, the company emphasized that it is seeing fundamentals underneath the headline Iran-linked story, according to Yahoo Finance.
CF Industries reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion for the first half of 2026 and said its ammonia plants ran at nearly 98% of available capacity. The company also raised its estimate of what it can earn in a typical year, supported by project milestones including Blue Point, where it has received permits, ordered nearly all long lead items, and expects module fabrication to begin later this year.
The company’s plan also includes the return of its Yazoo City Complex in the first half of 2027. Management targets roughly $3.3 billion in mid-cycle EBITDA by 2030, up from a new $2.9 billion baseline, and said neither figure assumes a boost from the current conflict.
Operational results and capital returns supported the message, with second-quarter net earnings of $727 million, or $4.73 per diluted share, and trailing 12-month free cash flow of around $1.8 billion. CF Industries said it repurchased 10.6 million shares for $958 million over the past year and raised its quarterly dividend 20% to $0.60 per share in July.