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Cheesecake Factory and peers widen lead over Chipotle as restaurant gap hits record
Over the past 60 trading days, the median spread between established restaurant operators and growth-focused chains reached 66 points on Aug. 7, the widest gap seen since 2016.
Wall Street has shifted its restaurant leadership, with established chains pulling ahead of growth-oriented names by the widest margin seen in a decade, according to data highlighted by Yahoo Finance. Over roughly the past 60 trading days, Darden, Texas Roadhouse, Brinker, Cheesecake Factory, and BJ's Restaurants gained about 62% at the median, while Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack went essentially nowhere.
Yahoo Finance data shows the 62-percentage-point gap is wider than any stretch from 2016 through 2025, and it peaked at a record 66 points on Aug. 7, surpassing the prior high of 50 set in November 2019.
The analysis also points to valuation differences, with the sit-down group trading at a median forward price-to-earnings multiple of 22, versus 35 for the growth chains. Although the growth companies still show faster expected earnings-per-share growth, their same-store sales and recent earnings revisions trail the established group.
Recent operating results illustrate the divergence: BJ's comparable sales rose 6.5% last quarter, with traffic up 8.3%, and Cheesecake Factory reported 5.8% comparable-sales growth with 2.7% traffic growth. In contrast, Wingstop’s domestic same-store sales fell 7.5% as transaction volumes declined, while Chipotle’s comparable sales rose 2.2% as transaction trends improved, the outlet said.