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The Metals Company pushes NOAA licensing to October, delaying Q1 2027

The expected NOAA application certification is now slated for October, while the recovery vessel is not expected to be commissioned until late 2026.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Guidance

The Metals Company, a NASDAQ-listed deep-sea mining company, confirmed an expected delay to its licensing timeline after its Q2 update, with NOAA application certification now expected in October rather than the prior Q1 2027 window.

The delay pushes back licensing timing, but the company said the setback did not meaningfully change its operating timeline because the recovery vessel is not expected to be commissioned until late 2026, leaving time for licensing before the ship is ready.

TMC targets 3 million wet tonnes per year and values the project at an estimated $1.25 billion to $2.5 billion depending on grades, composition, and market pricing, with revenue potentially beginning in late 2027 or early 2028.

Analysts expect revenue to begin as soon as Q4 2027 and then ramp aggressively in later quarters, supported by heightened US national security interest in deep-sea critical minerals, and TMC says it is in talks with various agencies that could lead to additional support or agreements.

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