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Brazilian Real seen supported by hawkish central bank

Commerzbank analysts project USD/BRL stays under pressure near-term but average out to 5.20 by end-2026 and 4.80 by end-2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · EM Currencies

FXStreet, citing Commerzbank FX analysts Norman Liebke and Michael Pfister, says the Brazilian Real (BRL) is supported by the Brazilian Central Bank’s hawkish stance and still-elevated real interest rates.

The analysts expect USD/BRL to remain under pressure ahead of the October presidential election, as markets price in political risk.

They also forecast a rebound after the election, with USD/BRL at 5.20 by year-end 2026 and 4.80 by end-2027.

FXStreet notes the view is tied to the timing of election-related risk and subsequent shifts in market pricing for Brazilian assets.

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Sources

FXStreetBrazilian Real: Election risks then renewed gains – Commerzbank

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