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Commerzbank sees US payrolls overstating slowdown as revisions loom
The bank expects an annual benchmark revision of about 250,000 jobs for March 2026, arguing published figures may have understated job creation.
Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner says recent U.S. employment data point to a softening labor market, but he argues official payroll numbers likely understate actual job growth.
He notes that Nonfarm Payroll growth has slowed sharply, with average monthly gains of just 32,000 over the past 12 months. He also points to a gap between competing employment measures, citing QCEW job growth of 299,000 in December 2025 versus 69,000 in the nonfarm payrolls, implying the payroll series understated employment by about 230,000.
Weidensteiner expects a similar discrepancy between the two data series to produce a positive upward revision of about 250,000 jobs for March 2026. He adds that even if the revision changes the baseline for a period, it is unlikely to materially alter the current trend of a slowing labor market.
The analysis highlights that a smaller or improved revision would also suggest statisticians have bettered their models, which he says could improve the quality of current labor market data going forward, according to FXStreet.