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Labor shortages are expected to drive faster U.S. robot deployments
A CLSA Japan analysis cited by ETF Trends links manufacturing job openings to robot installations, forecasting shipments of about 45,000 to 46,000 units in 2025 and roughly 120,000 by 2030.
ETF Trends reports that U.S. manufacturing is both large and highly productive, accounting for 17% of global manufacturing value added, and producing more than $220,000 in value added per worker. Even with strength coming out of a down cycle, the industry faces a structural recruitment and retention challenge that has ranked as manufacturers top concern for five straight years.
According to ETF Trends, job openings in U.S. manufacturing totaled 481,000 in June, while the workforce is aging, with 26% of manufacturing workers age 55 or older and only 8% in the 16 to 24 bracket. The outlet also notes that stricter immigration rules are expected to tighten the labor pool further, worsening the availability problem.
ETF Trends cites a relationship between labor demand and automation, saying research shows a 94% R-squared correlation between manufacturing job openings and robot installations one year later. Using that link, CLSA Japan forecasts robot shipments to the U.S. rising from approximately 45,000 to 46,000 units in 2025 to around 120,000 by 2030, with the U.S. projected to become the second country to deploy more than one million industrial robots by 2033.
The outlet also points to early momentum from the current upcycle, saying the U.S. manufacturing PMI run rate in 2026 is near 53 versus an average of 49 in 2025. ETF Trends adds that global factory automation company top-line growth accelerated from 14% in the first quarter to 24% in the second quarter, and operating profit growth increased from 33% to 56% year over year, while also clarifying physical AI is distinct from humanoid robotics.