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Hungarian forint outlook hinges on NBH easing cycle extending

ING expects the Hungarian base rate to fall to 4.75% by the end of 2026, depending on September’s Inflation Report, after July inflation eased to 1.2%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

ING strategists see the National Bank of Hungary’s (NBH) decision on Tuesday as the final move in a summer mini rate cut cycle, but they expect the easing to continue into a broader, longer phase.

They point to improved inflation, with July reading at 1.2%, as a key factor supporting further cuts. ING also ties its outlook to the NBH’s use of the September Inflation Report to determine whether the policy easing cycle should keep going.

ING says it doubts the August decision will introduce anything beyond the current situation, noting that the central bank has indicated that any further path will be assessed with September’s report. The strategists also argue the NBH is unlikely to make premature conclusions given rapidly changing geopolitical and global trade developments.

Still, they expect any forward guidance could include a conditional statement linked to the inflation outlook that signals continued rate cuts, forecasting the Hungarian base rate could reach 4.75% by end of 2026, according to FXStreet.

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