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Microsoft faces split analyst views as Fed guidance shifts
Analysts cited valuation risk from Microsoft’s heavy AI capital spending, with AI CapEx topping $30 billion in a single quarter and potentially approaching $190 billion for fiscal 2026.
MarketBeat Ratings says disagreement among Wall Street analysts on Microsoft has become a test case for how investors should price risk as the Federal Reserve’s forward guidance changes.
Since July, several firms including Mizuho, Argus, and Barclays have lowered Microsoft price targets while keeping bullish ratings or recommendations, reflecting a shift away from a shared rate-path assumption that previously supported clustering of valuation calls.
MarketBeat Ratings attributes part of the caution to the Fed, noting that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has reduced forward guidance and emphasized that markets should focus on data rather than trying to infer what comes next from central bank signals.
On the company side, the outlet points to concerns about multiple compression tied to Microsoft’s AI CapEx, which topped $30 billion in a single quarter and could approach $190 billion for the fiscal year, even as no firm is described as calling the underlying business broken.