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Rabobank warns US curbs could strain China’s export-led growth

Rabobank cites China’s large trade surplus, alongside mixed PMI signals, as policy barriers threaten the country’s ability to sell abroad.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

FXStreet, citing Rabobank strategists, said growing US-led restrictions are increasingly pressuring China’s trade model by targeting links tied to Iran and Venezuela, while also adding barriers to entry for Chinese goods.

Rabobank pointed to China’s large trade surplus and weak domestic demand, noting that Purchasing Managers Index signals were mixed, with manufacturing slightly improving but non-manufacturing deteriorating, and both sectors still below the contraction-expansion threshold.

The strategists added that official data comes alongside unofficial readings showing manufacturing expanding faster than expected, which they said would either intensify the need for demand elsewhere to absorb an exportable surplus, or, if inaccurate, raise risks that even the export engine is losing momentum.

Rabobank argued that policy-driven barriers could increasingly look like cumulative harm to China’s economy, while also referencing concerns that trade negotiations may not fully reduce imbalances, potentially shifting problem-solving toward regulatory tools.

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