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ECB decision set for 25 bps hike to 2.50% policy rate
Markets are pricing an additional December hike and total ECB tightening of 85 bps by end-2027, with updated projections expected to show higher growth and lower inflation.
Forexlive outlines a busy European and American data agenda centered on the European Central Bank rate decision, where the bank is widely expected to raise rates by 25 bps to a 2.50% policy rate. The key focus is likely to be the ECB's forward guidance and its willingness to continue tightening beyond the current move.
The outlet says market pricing points to another rate hike in December and total tightening of 85 bps by the end of 2027. It also flags the updated macroeconomic projections, expected to revise growth higher and inflation lower, reflecting recent misses in core inflation readings.
In the American session, Forexlive highlights the US PPI report and initial and continuing jobless claims as the main releases. It notes expectations for US PPI inflation of 5.3% year over year, with energy cited as a driver of the anticipated increase.
For US jobless claims, the figures highlighted include initial claims expected at 205K versus 206K prior, and continuing claims at 1780K versus 1779K prior. Forexlive adds that the market will treat the inflation data as the primary driver, implying other releases may be largely ignored unless they produce a major upside surprise.