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Germany September CPI seen accelerating above 3% as energy feeds in
Markets are focused on core CPI, seen steady at 2.4% in August, because a rise there would signal broader, less reversible price pressure for the ECB.
Germany September CPI is expected to show a further pickup in inflation pressures, an important driver for European trading as attention turns to how the ECB may respond, according to Forexlive.
The forecast calls for headline CPI to rise to 3.1% year over year in September, up from 2.9% in August, with energy prices in August up 10.5% on the year and contributing heavily to the headline figure.
Forexlive said the key metric is core CPI, which was comparatively steadier at 2.4% in August. Another move higher in core prices would matter most for markets and the ECB reaction, because it could indicate that inflation pressure is broadening and increase the risk of second-round effects.
The outlet also noted that while policymakers have been reluctant to react mechanically to energy shocks, the read on core inflation is the better signal for how the ECB could interpret the persistence of inflation.