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Polish rate decision likely held at 3.75% for Oct 7 meeting

ING expects the National Bank of Poland to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% on Oct 7, with the earliest possible move coming in November.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak expect the National Bank of Poland to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% at the Oct. 7 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, according to FXStreet.

They said November is the earliest meeting where the MPC could change policy, because fresh macroeconomic projections would be available then.

FXStreet also cited their view that inflation rose to 4.0% year over year in September, and that government intervention in the fuel market is expected to deduct 0.7 percentage points from CPI.

ING’s outlook suggests the real interest rate would remain close to zero in the short term, and they currently anticipate two 25 basis point rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027 as inflation risks persist.

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