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ECB seen holding rates in October before a December hike
A Reuters poll found most economists expect the ECB deposit rate to stay at 2.50% on Oct. 29, with a December move of 25 bps and inflation forecasts revised higher.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the European Central Bank to leave interest rates unchanged in October and then raise them again in December, based on a poll conducted Oct. 5-8.
In the survey, 70 of 73 economists forecast the ECB will hold its deposit rate at 2.50% on Oct. 29, while 64 of 73 expect a 25-basis-point hike in December. A 58% majority expect the deposit rate to peak at 2.75%, though 24 economists instead see it reaching 3.00%.
The poll also pointed to higher inflation expectations, citing the impact of oil prices linked to the war in the Middle East, with inflation expected to average 3.7% in the fourth quarter, up from 3.3% in the third quarter.
Eurozone growth is forecast to improve to 1.0% this year, from 0.8% in the prior survey, with growth estimates of 1.2% in 2027 and 1.3% in 2028, Reuters said.