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Poland’s NBP holds reference rate at 3.75% in October

ING economists say the rate pause could last for several months, with only modest preventive tightening of 25 to 50 basis points expected early 2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak said Poland’s central bank, the National Bank of Poland, kept its reference rate unchanged at 3.75% in October, as expected.

They linked the recent rise in inflation largely to higher fuel prices, arguing that this backdrop gives the Monetary Policy Council room to stay on hold for several months.

In their view, any tightening would likely be limited and preventive, with preventive rate hikes of about 25 to 50 basis points possible at the beginning of 2027.

The economists also pointed to high energy prices increasing the risk of second round effects, and they noted that regulated prices, including gas tariffs, are expected to rise from the beginning of 2027.

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