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CSU cuts 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast to well below average

Colorado State University now forecasts 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 50, down from its May projections.

Reported · Written up by our desk · North America

Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology team has reduced its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season again, saying a likely strong El Niño will drive higher vertical wind shear that should suppress Atlantic storm and hurricane activity, according to Artemis.

In its May forecast, CSU projected 11 named tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, index value of 70. In a July 8 update, the team lowered the seasonal outlook to 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and just 1 major hurricane, with the ACE index now at 50.

CSU said El Niño conditions are expected to intensify over the coming months and be especially strong around the peak of hurricane season, with the main impact coming from elevated tropical Atlantic wind shear. It also said sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long term averages.

While CSU forecast a well below average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean, the team noted that hurricane seasons can be active even if overall numbers are low, adding that residents should make thorough preparations each season because it only takes one storm to make landfall.

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