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Atlantic hurricane forecast cut to below normal for 2026 season

Colorado State University now expects 2026 to feature fewer hurricanes than average, with nine named storms and a 17% chance of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall.

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Colorado State University researchers lowered their forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to well below normal, citing a strengthening El Nino that they say will curb hurricane formation through increased vertical wind shear.

In its July 8 update, CSU projected 2026 will bring nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane. For comparison, an average season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30, features about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

CSU said El Nino has a high potential to dominate tropical circulation during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The researchers noted the phenomenon is typically associated with conditions that make hurricanes harder to form.

CSU’s outlook also implies fewer major hurricane risks for the U.S. coastline, with a 17% chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coast, versus a historical average of 43% from 1880 to 2020. CSU’s original April forecast had called for a below average season of 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.

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