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Swiss Re says non-life underwriting downturn may be less severe
Swiss Re projects slower premium growth in non-life insurance as the underwriting cycle softens, while warning geopolitical and regulatory fragmentation could disrupt reinsurance flows.
Swiss Re said the global non-life insurance and reinsurance market has moved into a softer underwriting phase, but it expects the downturn to be less deep than in prior cycles, according to the company’s latest sigma report.
Swiss Re also said the softer environment is likely to moderate premium expansion in non-life risks. The reinsurer cautioned that fragmentation risks are rising, citing factors such as capital controls, regulatory divergence, sanctions, and broader segmentation that could affect how reinsurance, retrocession, and alternative capital or insurance-linked securities function.
At the same time, Swiss Re pointed to new demand for resilience and risk transfer solutions. It linked this to the development of AI infrastructure and ongoing geopolitical fragmentation, arguing that recurring supply shocks have become a structural feature of the global economy.
Swiss Re said demand is also increasing for specialist coverage designed to support international trade, investment, and business continuity. The company highlighted that major AI data centers can have total asset values exceeding USD 20 billion before technology installation, creating construction, operational, and accumulation risks that it said may require solutions beyond traditional insurance, including risk engineering and alternative risk transfer and financing.