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TD Securities cuts its aluminium price outlook as supply recovers
TD Securities now forecasts 2026 aluminium averages of $3,378 per tonne and 2027 averages of $3,281 per tonne, with deficits narrowing to 1.2 million tonnes in 2026.
TD Securities has downgraded its aluminium price outlook, citing a rebound in supply and softer demand as the market moves toward balance, according to a note highlighted by FXStreet.
The firm now expects aluminium to average $3,378 per tonne in 2026 and $3,281 per tonne in 2027, representing revisions down of 5.0% and 9.8% from its previous forecast. TD Securities also projected smaller deficits versus earlier expectations, forecasting a 1.2 million tonne deficit in 2026 and a 234 thousand tonne deficit in 2027.
TD Securities pointed to factors including faster Middle East smelter ramp-ups, increased Indonesian supply, and robust Chinese semi-fabricated exports, alongside weaker demand. It also flagged risks such as Indonesia and Middle East supply increases falling short due to technical challenges or renewed violence that could disrupt production in the Gulf region.
The strategists said the forward curve has shifted from backwardation, which peaked above $100 per tonne during the crisis, into contango as near term supply improves. Even so, TD Securities argued a major rout is unlikely, projecting support in a $3,100 to $3,400 per tonne trading range through 2027.