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Home›Bonds & Rates›Economy›Traders price a Fed rate hike in 2026 amid policy split

Traders price a Fed rate hike in 2026 amid policy split

Kalshi traders assign about a 54.0% chance of a hike occurring before 2027 following the latest Fed minutes, which showed a divided outlook on rates.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Economy

CNBC Markets reports that traders on Kalshi are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike occurring in 2026, as the Federal Reserve remains split on where interest rates are headed this year.

According to the report, Wednesday's Fed minutes pointed to differing views on the path for rates, and Kalshi participants put the likelihood of a hike before 2027 at 54.0%.

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Sources

CNBC MarketsKalshi traders see roughly 50% odds of a rate hike in 2026 as Fed is split on policy

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