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TSR lifts Atlantic hurricane forecast for 2026 activity

The forecast now calls for ACE of 67, up from 55 in a May update, while US landfall numbers stay at 1 hurricane and 3 tropical storms.

Reported · Written up by our desk · North America

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has raised its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, increasing the expected number of hurricanes and major hurricanes after citing signs that sub-tropical conditions could turn more favorable for tropical cyclones.

In TSR’s latest update, it expects 11 named tropical storms, with 5 becoming hurricanes and 2 strengthening into major hurricanes. It also lifted its outlook for the season’s accumulated cyclone energy, raising the ACE Index to 67 from 55 in its May 28 update.

TSR said the broader outlook remains below long term levels, with overall activity around 40% under the 1991-2020 30 year norm. It attributed the lower activity primarily to developing strong El Niño conditions expected to strengthen through summer and autumn 2026, while noting the sub-tropical Atlantic may slightly offset unfavorable conditions across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.

For US impacts, TSR kept its landfall forecast unchanged, calling for 1 hurricane and 3 tropical storms to hit the US coastline, below the 30 year norm of 1.6 and 3.8 respectively. The group also expects August to September sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region to be slightly warmer than average, with El Niño driving stronger than normal Caribbean trade winds that can increase wind shear, even as the sub-tropical Atlantic looks more supportive.

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