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Iran war risks triggering an OPEC market share race for oil
Oil futures were lower on the day, with WTI at 71.79 and Brent at 76.10, as traders weighed potential disruption and OPEC unity.
OilPrice said renewed Middle East tensions tied to an Iran conflict could accelerate a market share race among oil producers, following earlier speculation that OPEC was weakening after the UAE said it was leaving the group to boost output as much as it wanted.
The outlet pointed to how traders interpreted a US-Iran peace effort as largely settled until missiles resumed, after which the US president said the ceasefire was dead and concerns about longer-term disruption returned to the forefront in OPEC-linked oil regions.
OilPrice also cited prior reporting that OPEC could struggle to maintain its role as “market manager,” referencing concerns that Iraq and other Gulf members may seek production increases if they are not allowed to ramp up while Saudi Arabia prioritizes restraint.
The article argued that any outcome where OPEC becomes a loser from the Iran war depends on whether supply disruptions outweigh demand recovery, noting that it has historically been the case that oil demand tends to rebound faster than supply when prices fall.