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AI-linked capital goods imports widen the US trade deficit, Commerzbank says

Commerzbank points to May capital goods imports rising 42.5% year over year, with AI-related purchases driving most of the increase.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Commerzbank analyst Volkmar Baur said AI related capital goods imports are structurally widening the US trade deficit, with stronger foreign demand currently helping finance the gap.

In a breakdown of recent data, Baur said even very high US crude oil and petroleum product exports, up 93% year over year in USD terms, have not prevented the deficit from rising.

He added that the deficit mix is shifting, noting that capital goods have replaced consumer goods as the main contributor, with May capital goods imports up 42.5% year over year while consumer goods imports fell 9%.

Baur also attributed much of the change to artificial intelligence, saying capital goods imports rose by USD 38 billion in May compared with the prior year, with AI linked items accounting for 90% of the increase, including about 33% tied to automatic data processing units used in data centers. He warned that if confidence in the US AI investment story weakens, it could pose risks for the US dollar.

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