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Canada job data forecast keeps unemployment rate steady at 6.6%

Markets also expect average hourly wages to cool, while USD/CAD is seen capped near the 1.4250 area ahead of Friday’s Labour Force Survey.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Markets are looking ahead to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey on Friday, with expectations for a relatively stable jobs report. The net change in employment is forecast to rise by 10K in June, following an 87.8K gain in May, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.6%.

The market focus extends beyond the headline unemployment rate, with traders monitoring wage momentum as an inflation signal. Average hourly wages in May rose at an annualised 3.2%, a reading that suggests some cooling in wage inflation.

In parallel, the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its policy stance, given that it has been on hold for five consecutive decisions since cutting rates in October 2025. FXStreet notes that the July 15 meeting should keep policy unchanged, and it says the bar for another rate hike appears relatively high, with expectations for nearly 15 basis points of additional tightening by year end.

For FX positioning, FXStreet points to USD/CAD trading near its yearly peak area close to 1.4250, describing the move as consolidative since late June. The analysis says further upside is likely limited by that zone, with attention shifting to support in the mid 1.4100s, then lower levels near the 55-day, 200-day, and 100-day moving averages, depending on how price action unfolds.

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