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El Niño set for very strong event, US forecasters say
The US Climate Prediction Center estimates an 81% chance the event becomes very strong, with ocean temperatures running 1C to 2.7C above normal in parts of the eastern Pacific.
The US Climate Prediction Center says the El Niño that emerged last month across the Pacific has continued to build and is likely to become one of the strongest events in the historical record going back to 1950. The agency cited sea surface temperatures 1C, or 1.8F, or more above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with some areas of the eastern Pacific reaching 2.7C above normal in the past week.
In its monthly forecast, the agency projects an 81% chance El Niño will become very strong and increase the odds of expected seasonal outcomes. It also said the phenomenon will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will last through early spring 2027.
El Niño is closely watched by traders, markets, and governments because it can tilt the risk of weather extremes, including floods, droughts, cold snaps, and shifts in hurricane and typhoon activity. The forecast also links stronger El Niño to increased wind shear in the Caribbean, which can disrupt tropical storms and hurricanes during the Atlantic and Pacific storm seasons.
The article also points to real-world impacts already being seen, including effects on water and power systems. In India, hydroelectric generation fell almost 21% year over year, the steepest drop since February 2024, as reservoir levels were depleted, while a separate data point showed dam output declined nearly 7% in the quarter ended June.