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Rupee steadies as oil and geopolitics weigh on USD/INR

USD/INR was last around 95.40, with strategists pointing to RBI-linked dollar sales and improved FX inflow measures as support while a clean INR recovery hinges on lower crude.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong said the Indian rupee is facing depreciation pressure as oil and geopolitics re-enter focus, driving USD/INR toward a one month high.

They noted some downside pressure has eased after oil pulled back from its highs, and they pointed to RBI-linked dollar sales that helped limit recent losses.

OCBC added that RBI measures introduced in June to attract FX inflows via FCNR(B) deposits, external borrowings, and wider foreign access to long end government bonds have improved the flow backdrop at the margin.

Looking ahead, they expect USD/INR to remain relatively contained near term, but said the bar for a clean INR recovery remains high unless oil prices resume moving lower. They also highlighted key levels, including resistance at 95.55 and 95.90, and support around 95.20 and 94.80/90.

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