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US Dollar eyed on CPI, Fed speakers and Warsh testimony
Rabobank expects June CPI to ease to 3.8% year on year and core inflation to 2.8%, feeding into near-term USD trading around a packed US data and Fed event calendar.
Rabobank Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen flagged a US-focused week of economic releases and Fed communications likely to drive moves in the US dollar, pointing to June inflation, producer prices, and retail sales as key inputs for FX traders.
The newsletter expects Tuesday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release to show June CPI moderating to 3.8% year on year from 4.2%, with core inflation easing marginally to 2.8%. It also notes that investors who follow the trimmed-mean approach can watch for the Cleveland Fed’s estimate.
Rabobank said attention will also turn to multiple Fed speakers and the new Fed chair Warsh’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, alongside remarks from Fed colleagues Barr, Goolsbee, Cook, and Bowman.
Looking ahead, Rabobank highlighted Wednesday’s eurozone industrial production data, US producer price inflation, and a Bank of Canada decision expected to leave the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%. It added that Thursday brings UK monthly GDP estimates and US retail sales for June, with additional Fed remarks scheduled from Musalem, Logan, and Schmid.