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China’s June trade surplus supports yuan despite firmer dollar
Exports rose 27.0% year-on-year in June and imports gained 36.0%, helping keep the CFETS RMB index above 102.
China’s June trade data delivered an upside surprise, with exports up 27.0% year-on-year and imports rising 36.0%, a pattern attributed to strong global demand for AI infrastructure, FXStreet reports. The same commentary notes that external accounts look robust while domestic consumption remains weaker, but the sustained trade surplus is providing support for the yuan.
According to FXStreet, Commerzbank strategist Dr. Henry Hao said the CFETS RMB index has been trading above 102 since late June, a level not seen for four years. That backdrop, combined with the surplus flow, was cited as a fundamental anchor for CNY strength even as the US dollar firmed.
In the currency market, the article says USD/CNY rose about 50 pips to 6.78 and offshore USD/CNH edged up about 30 pips to 6.79 ahead of the broader release cycle. Commerzbank also pointed out that attention is turning to Wednesday’s Q2 GDP release, where the Bloomberg consensus calls for growth of 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.0% in Q1.
The commentary also referenced Premier Li Qiang’s pledge to step up countercyclical policy adjustments to unlock domestic demand, framing the move as preparation in case upcoming data disappoints. FXStreet said this aligns with the view that policymakers are alert to the growth slowdown risk and stand ready to act if needed.