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Miliband’s UK chancellor bid falters as market-friendly contenders lead
Prediction markets assign Yvette Cooper a 39% probability and Shabana Mahmood 33%, with Miliband dropping from nearly 70% to 15% in 24 hours.
TD Securities highlights changing odds in the race to become the United Kingdom’s next chancellor, with Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood emerging as heavily rumored top contenders and Ed Miliband’s bid reported to have been dashed.
According to the note, market participants had feared Miliband’s approach could involve big spending and strong environmental regulations that might weigh on growth in sectors including energy and AI, pushing them to favor candidates seen as more market-sensitive.
TD Securities expects near term announcements focused on devolution of power and policies to address the cost of living, saying neither is expected to create material concern for markets.
The firm also points to the Labour Party Conference on September 27 to 30 and an autumn budget that may come in mid-October, while noting Burnham has reiterated an intention to stick to fiscal rules that matter for Gilt markets, even as those rules could be tweaked next year.