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Prediction markets hit record $113.8B notional volume in Q2
While overall crypto volumes fell, prediction markets posted their strongest quarter on record at $113.8 billion, highlighting sports and politics as key drivers.
Cryptocurrency markets weakened across multiple segments in the second quarter of 2026, but prediction markets bucked the trend with a record quarter. CoinGecko’s Crypto Industry Report, cited by Cointelegraph, showed prediction markets reaching $113.8 billion in notional volume in Q2.
At the same time, centralized exchange activity declined, with spot trading volume across the top 10 CEXs falling to $1.95 trillion, a 27.9% drop from $2.7 trillion in Q1. CEX perpetual futures volume also slid 10% to $12.7 trillion, while the stablecoin market dipped 1.6% to $305.1 billion.
Cointelegraph also highlighted the divergence between traditional crypto trading and prediction markets, noting sports and politics as the sector’s biggest drivers. Polymarket’s World Cup winner market drew more than $3.3 billion in trading volume, and contracts tied to the 2028 US presidential election ranked among the platform’s largest markets, based on Polymarketscan data.
Despite the broader downturn, the report found Binance extended its dominance in spot CEXs with a 38.7% market share in Q2, while MEXC saw the biggest slump as spot trading volume more than halved from $275.2 billion in Q1 to $121.2 billion in Q2. In decentralized exchanges, top 10 DEXs processed $408.9 billion in volume, down from $556.4 billion in Q1, and Uniswap kept a 41.2% market share even as its volume fell 21.4% to $168.5 billion.