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Warsh hawkish Fed stance lifts 2-year Treasury yields, markets price hikes
After Warsh took over on May 22, the two-year Treasury yield rose from 4.0% to 4.15%, with at least one rate increase priced by year-end.
Kevin Warsh’s early tenure as US Federal Reserve chair has taken a notably hawkish tone, with a pledge at his first press conference on June 17 to curb inflation. In remarks reported by SCMP Economy, Warsh said the Fed’s interest rate-setting committee was “unambiguous and unanimous” in its goal to deliver price stability.
The shift has moved bond markets. Since the conclusion of the Fed’s policy meeting on June 17, the yield on the interest rate-sensitive two-year Treasury has risen from 4.0% to 4.15%, according to the report.
Bond investors who had questioned Warsh’s inflation credentials, given that his nomination was tied to a push for lower borrowing costs, appear less worried about White House pressure to cut rates while inflation remains elevated, SCMP Economy said.
The article also points to broader policy changes beyond messaging. Warsh has launched an extensive review covering how the Fed communicates with markets, the future of its large balance sheet, and the reliability of its data sources, while Citadel Securities said his hawkish tone conflicted with market expectations for a more dovish approach.